DEMOGRAPHY: Enhanced: Broken Limits to Life Expectancy -- Oeppen and Vaupel 296 (5570): 1029 -- Science

DEMOGRAPHY: Enhanced: Broken Limits to Life Expectancy -- Oeppen and Vaupel 296 (5570): 1029 -- Science
Is life expectancy [HN1] approaching its limit? Many--including individuals planning their retirement and officials responsible for health and social policy--believe it is. The evidence suggests otherwise.

Consider first an astonishing fact. Female life expectancy in the record-holding country has risen for 160 years at a steady pace of almost 3 months per year [Fig. 1 and suppl. table 1 (1)]. In 1840 the record was held by Swedish women, who lived on average a little more than 45 years. Among nations today, the longest expectation of life--almost 85 years--is enjoyed by Japanese women [HN2]. The four-decade increase in life expectancy in 16 decades is so extraordinarily linear [r2 = 0.992; also see suppl. figs. 1 to 5 (1)] that it may be the most remarkable regularity of mass endeavor ever observed. Record life expectancy has also risen linearly for men (r2 = 0.980), albeit more slowly (slope = 0.222): the gap between female and male levels [HN3] has grown from 2 to 6 years (suppl. fig. 2).